What Trump’s Plan Really Means and Why We Should be Worried - Paul Mirbach

What we have learned from Trump’s reelection is that it is unwise to dismiss his declarations as empty rhetoric. Now he proposes that the United States “take over and own the Gaza Strip”, suggesting long term US control, and to permanently resettle the Palestinian inhabitants – 1.8 million people - in Jordan and Egypt without even consulting either nation, thereby plunging the continuance of their peace treaties into doubt.

That sounds pretty much like a mandate for the purpose of rebuilding Gaza, reminiscent of the Sykes-Picot agreement of 1916 – but without Sykes or Picot, and without an international agreement, but rather a unilateral declaration of intent, made by a narcissistic president, enamored in the belief of his own genius, using his power and stature to impose his will.

While Bibi calls it “a remarkable proposal” and Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, hails his Gaza proposal as “historic ‘outside of the box’ thinking”, Smotrich, who already back in November 2023 advocated for the “voluntary emigration” of Arabs from the Gaza Strip to other countries, called it “the true response to October 7”.Throughout history, populist leaders and politicians have offered simplistic solutions to complex, unresolvable problems. And make no mistake: Donald Trump is such a leader, as is Bibi.

Throughout history there are always those who are receptive to these ideas. There will always be those looking for a “quick fix”, who are desperate enough to grasp at anything that seems tangible which gratifies their desire to solve the problem once and for all.

“If only we could make them go away”.

But this time, it is different; because there are extremist, fanatic elements in Israel for whom this wish has never been closer at hand than now. Those have long dreamed of ridding the West Bank and Gaza of Palestinians, have coveted their land, and have been waiting for the opportunity to drive them out of their homes to rebuild Jewish settlements. Fired by their delusions of reconstituting King David’s empire, they see Trump’s plan as a validation for their aspirations and feel emboldened. Their hitherto morally repugnant ideological fantasy has now been given legitimacy by none other than the President of the United States.

Invariably, populist and simplistic solutions are impracticable. And, when implemented, they often end up having the opposite effect of that envisioned.

Take Brexit, for instance. A majority of economists believe that Brexit has harmed the UK's economy, reduced its real per capita income in the long term, and is costing the UK economy £100 billion a year. Furthermore, they say that it has caused reduced investment, recession, and manpower issues (due to the reduction of migrated workforces, causing skilled worker shortages).

Perhaps the closest example I can think of, of a populist plan seemingly simple in concept, that when implemented nearly succeeded, is the Final Solution – and in the end, even that failed. The Final Solution did not start with genocide. It started with mass deportations. In 1940, following the fall of France, Eichmann devised the Madagascar Plan to move Europe's Jewish population to the French colony to rid Europe of the Jews. However, the plan was abandoned for logistical reasons. There were also preliminary plans to deport Jews to Palestine and Siberia. It was not until January 1942 at the Wannsee Conference, that the systematic plan for genocide “to solve the Jewish problem once and for all” took shape and form.

Please accept that intention here is not to draw a direct comparison of Trump’s plan to the Final Solution. I am using it as an illustration to show where the implementation of a populist solution can lead. Because, it might be Trump’s idea, but the US is just the agent. It will be Israel, who now that it has been given legitimacy, will be pushing for resettlement, and will be tasked with implementing it. And, the likes of Smotrich, Ben Gvir, and Strouk in the government will hijack the plan and take it in directions Trump never even imagined – and that is what is so dangerous about this idea. Make no mistake: the ramifications of the Trump idea may not be as extreme as my illustration, but it is no less morally repugnant. And the irony that Jews will be enforcing this “resettlement” – or at the very least profiting from it, is unbearable.

At this point, the particulars are not clear; On the one hand, we hear that the resettlement of Gazans will be temporary, until it is rebuilt, and then those that “want to” can return. On the other hand, Trump is touting, "I'm talking about building a permanent place for them." “[W]hen Palestinians have an alternative, they won't want to return, because they're going to have much better housing".

Throughout history, no people in a national struggle has ever chosen quality of life over national self-determination. It reminds me of (then) Rhodesia, when the Whites used to dismiss the aspirations for independence among the Blacks, saying they were better off in Rhodesia than in any other country in Africa. It reeks of the same arrogant patronizing attitude. Why should we expect the Palestinians to be any different? Do we really expect 1.8 million people to voluntarily abandon their homes where they have lived for generations, to be resettled elsewhere with the empty promise of a “better life”?

It is not going to happen. There is no such thing as resettlement “by choice”. Not when the government oppressing you is the one proposing the resettlement. The Palestinians will see it as another attempt by Israel to dispossess them of their homeland, and they will resist. The reasoning, that it is for their own good, to get them out of the “hell” in which they are currently living, (hell that Israel inflicted on them, as they would interpret it), will sound hollow and fall on deaf ears. Except for a small percentage with the economic means to relocate, they will reject it outright.

Which means that the Palestinians will need to be “encouraged” to accept resettlement. How do you encourage people who don’t want to leave, to leave? You make their lives more and more intolerable until they cannot take it any longer and are left with no other choice but to acquiesce. But that’s not really “by choice”, is it? Resettlement then becomes mass deportation. Therein lies the danger; it is in one’s determination to make the plan succeed, that it becomes necessary to apply such force, that any semblance of humanity is abandoned. Can our consciences allow that?

In my opinion, this is why Trump’s vision of resettling Gazans, if executed, will very quickly become forced resettlement.  And then the “resettlement” becomes a crime against humanity as defined by international law and in abrogation of Article 49 of the Geneva Convention IV. Ethnic cleansing. Even Trump’s Executive Orders cannot repeal the Geneva Convention, and make it kosher!

Perhaps because she was aware of these ramifications, or perhaps to make it more palatable, Karoline Leavitt tried to walk Trump’s proposal back and reinterpreted the plan, saying instead that they would be "temporarily relocated" for the rebuilding process. “Move out of Gaza while we rebuild it for you, and then you can move back in”. Where have we heard that before? Oh, right! The Arab armies’ promise to the Palestinians in 1947.

And has Trump suddenly become an altruist?

Never in the history of humankind, has land remained uninhabited, or held in trust for any period of time. This is precisely the story of Judea/Palestine/Israel, and why we are trapped in this conflict in the first place. There is no such thing as a vacuum. Always, any land left uninhabited is filled by migrating populations. Add to the mix Israel’s extreme right-wing vision of resettling Gaza, with political parties championing this ideology holding senior cabinet positions and with the ability to threaten to bring down the government, and we can all see the direction this is going to go. The tidal wave of settlers flooding Gaza to rebuild Jewish settlements, will be unstoppable. And we all know that Bibi is not going to stand in their way. Trump won’t, either.

Will Trump’s Gaza Plan be executed and accomplished? I don’t know. But I do know that for many in Israel, it has opened a door to a once in a lifetime opportunity for them to realize their long-held Messianic dream of a Greater Israel, and they have no intention of letting it go.

What that means for Israel’s future frightens me. As much as the prospect of what our future will be if it isn’t.

by Paul Mirbach